What LTV Measures
Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is the total net profit a customer generates over their relationship with your business. It's the ceiling on what you can afford to spend acquiring one.
Formulas
- Simple LTV = ARPU × (1 ÷ churn) × margin
- Discounted LTV = ARPU × margin ÷ (churn + discount_rate)
- LTV:CAC ratio = LTV ÷ CAC
- Payback period (months) = CAC ÷ (ARPU × margin)
Why Discounting Matters
$100 in 5 years is worth less than $100 today. Discounted LTV accounts for the time value of money — typically 8–15% for SaaS, 20%+ for higher-risk businesses.
Benchmarks
| LTV:CAC | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| < 1:1 | Losing money on every customer |
| 1:1 – 3:1 | Marginal — need to reduce CAC or increase LTV |
| 3:1 – 5:1 | Healthy range (rule of thumb for SaaS) |
| > 5:1 | Underinvesting in growth — can afford higher CAC |
Common Mistakes
- Using revenue LTV instead of profit LTV — inflates the ratio by 3–5x.
- Ignoring discounting for high-churn businesses.
- Using historical averages without segmenting by cohort — different cohorts can have LTVs 3x apart.
- Forgetting expansion revenue (upsells, add-ons) — net revenue LTV is often 20–40% higher than gross.